On December 19, 1973, Johnny Carson made a joke during his Tonight Show monologue about a toilet paper shortage. There was no actual shortage. But within 24 hours, there was. Americans across the country rushed to stores and stockpiled toilet paper, creating the very crisis Carson had joked about. The Great Toilet Paper Panic of 1973 stands as a perfect example of how media can inadvertently create the reality it reports, and how crowd psychology can transform a joke into a national crisis.
The Setup
The early 1970s were anxious times in America. The 1973 oil crisis had created real shortages of gasoline. Long lines at gas stations were common. Americans had grown accustomed to rationing and scarcity—experiences that were new and unsettling for post-war generations.
In this context of genuine scarcity, rumors about potential shortages circulated constantly. People were primed to believe that another essential commodity might soon be unavailable.
The Joke
Carson’s monologue on December 19 included a quip about a toilet paper shortage. He based the joke on an actual story: Wisconsin congressman Harold Froehlich had claimed that the U.S. faced a potential toilet paper shortage due to issues with wood pulp production.
Froehlich’s warning was speculative and not based on actual current shortages. There was plenty of toilet paper. But Carson, always looking for material, turned it into a joke: “You know what’s disappearing from the supermarket shelves? Toilet paper. There’s an acute shortage of toilet paper in the United States.”
It was meant to be funny—a typical Tonight Show joke, mixing current events with absurdity. Carson moved on to the next joke. But his 20 million viewers did not simply laugh and forget.
The Panic Begins
The next morning, Americans who had seen Carson’s monologue went shopping. Many decided to stock up on toilet paper “just in case.” After all, if there was going to be a shortage, better to be prepared.
Stores noticed increased toilet paper sales on December 20. Some customers were buying far more than usual—not just one or two packages, but cases of toilet paper. Store shelves began to empty, not because supply had decreased, but because demand had suddenly spiked.
When other shoppers arrived at stores and saw empty toilet paper shelves, they panicked. Seeing empty shelves served as “proof” of the shortage Carson had mentioned. These shoppers began buying all the toilet paper they could find, further emptying shelves.
The Vicious Cycle
A destructive feedback loop developed:
- Carson makes joke about toilet paper shortage
- Some viewers stock up, just in case
- Stores sell out of toilet paper
- Empty shelves convince other shoppers the shortage is real
- Panic buying intensifies
- Media reports on empty shelves, spreading awareness
- More people panic buy
- The cycle accelerates
Within days, toilet paper was genuinely scarce in many American cities. Stores couldn’t restock fast enough to keep up with panic demand. There was plenty of toilet paper in warehouses and factories—supply chains were functioning normally. But shoppers were buying it faster than stores could restock shelves.
Media Amplification
News outlets reported on the toilet paper panic, which only made things worse. Headlines about toilet paper shortages and images of empty store shelves convinced even more people to stock up.
Some newspapers ran articles explaining that there was no actual shortage, that manufacturing was normal, and that panic buying was creating artificial scarcity. But these rational explanations competed poorly with images of empty shelves. Seeing is believing, and people believed what they saw: stores without toilet paper.
Radio DJs joked about the panic. Late-night comedians referenced it. The story became a media phenomenon, which ensured that even people who hadn’t seen Carson’s original monologue learned about the “shortage.”
The Industry Response
Paper manufacturers and retailers tried to calm the panic. They issued statements assuring consumers that production was normal and supply was adequate. They urged people to buy only what they needed.
These rational appeals had limited effect. When people are panicking, logic struggles to compete with emotion. The fear of being without toilet paper—a product associated with basic dignity and hygiene—overrode rational messaging.
Stores implemented purchase limits: customers could buy only one or two packages at a time. This helped somewhat, but it also signaled to shoppers that the shortage was real enough to require rationing, which paradoxically increased anxiety.
Carson’s Response
Johnny Carson addressed the panic on his December 20 show, the night after his original joke. He explained that there was no real shortage, that his joke had been based on a vague possibility mentioned by one congressman, and that toilet paper production was normal.
He apologized for causing the panic and urged viewers not to hoard toilet paper. “Folks, this is not a shortage. This is a panic,” he said. He asked Americans to be reasonable and buy only what they needed.
Even this apology and explanation didn’t immediately end the panic. By the time Carson apologized, the crisis had developed its own momentum. Empty shelves and media coverage had made the shortage psychologically real for millions of Americans.
The End
The toilet paper panic gradually subsided in early January 1974. As panic buying slowed, stores were able to restock. As shelves filled up again, shoppers’ anxiety decreased. Within about three weeks of Carson’s original joke, the crisis had ended.
No one had actually run out of toilet paper. Families who had panic-bought now had months or even years of supply stored in closets and basements. The only lasting effect was that Americans had redistributed toilet paper from stores and warehouses into private homes.
Lessons in Psychology
The 1973 toilet paper panic demonstrates several psychological and sociological phenomena:
Media Influence: The incident shows how media figures can inadvertently create reality. Carson had no intention of causing a shortage, but his words had real consequences.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: The panic became a perfect example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The prediction of a shortage, even though baseless, caused behavior that created an actual shortage.
Herd Behavior: Humans are social animals. When we see others acting as if there’s danger, we tend to assume they know something we don’t. Seeing others stock up on toilet paper convinced more people to do the same.
Loss Aversion: Psychologically, people fear loss more than they value equivalent gains. The fear of being without toilet paper outweighed rational calculation about the likelihood of actual shortage.
Scarcity Mindset: The oil crisis had primed Americans to expect shortages. In that psychological context, the toilet paper “shortage” seemed plausible.
Historical Significance
The 1973 toilet paper panic entered popular culture as shorthand for irrational consumer behavior. It’s cited in psychology textbooks as an example of mass hysteria and in economics courses as a case study in how expectations can affect markets.
The incident influenced how media personalities approach sensitive topics. It demonstrated that even jokes about shortages could trigger panic, especially during times of general anxiety.
It also showed how modern media ecosystems can amplify small events into major crises. A late-night comedy bit reached millions of viewers, creating a national panic within 24 hours.
Modern Parallels
The 1973 toilet paper panic has obvious parallels to more recent events, particularly the 2020 toilet paper shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic. In both cases:
- An external crisis created general anxiety
- Media coverage mentioned potential shortages
- Panic buying created actual scarcity
- Empty shelves convinced more people to panic buy
- Rational appeals had limited effect
- The “shortage” was primarily a distribution problem, not a production problem
Understanding the 1973 panic helps explain the 2020 shortages. Both demonstrate how crowd psychology, media coverage, and feedback loops can transform abundance into scarcity.
Legacy
The Great Toilet Paper Panic of 1973 remains relevant because it reveals fundamental truths about human behavior, media influence, and modern consumer culture. It shows how fragile supply chains can be when demand suddenly spikes, how quickly panic can spread in connected societies, and how difficult it is to counter irrational behavior with rational explanation.
Johnny Carson’s accidental creation of a national shortage demonstrates the responsibility that comes with media influence. His joke was harmless in intent but consequential in effect. The incident reminds us that in a connected world, where millions receive information simultaneously, even casual comments can have serious repercussions.
The toilet paper panic also reminds us that humans are not purely rational actors. We make decisions based on emotion, social cues, and immediate perception rather than calm analysis. When we’re anxious, when we see others panicking, when shelves are empty, we panic too—even when doing so is counterproductive.
In the end, the Great Toilet Paper Panic of 1973 serves as both a humorous historical oddity and a serious lesson about modern society. It’s a story that makes us laugh and think—sometimes simultaneously, much like a Johnny Carson monologue, though he probably would have preferred his jokes not to have quite such lasting consequences.